CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Thu 19 Jan 06:00 - Fri 20 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 18 Jan 20:57 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Blocking high over northeastern Europe remains ... and westerly flow over northeastern Atlantic splits into two branches over western Europe. During the period ... a short-wave trough travels southeastward into eastern Mediterranean, while a second short-wave trough reaches western Europe. Affected airmasses don't look like significant instability will build. Over Mediterranean ... low-level airmass is quite dry over most places. Over western Europe ... warm maritime airmass is stable, while cold airmass in the range of the short-wave trough is rather shallow. Best chances for a few thundery showers should exist over northern/eastern Mediterranean, where best moisture will be present and upper short-wave trough may provide some forcing. Over northwestern Europe ... a few thunderstorms are not ruled out in the range of the trough axis. Low intensity/coverage does not warrant a cathegorical tstms region.

DISCUSSION

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